Global Property Guide inspects worldwide house price indices
The world’s housing downturn is gathering momentum, according to the latest world-wide survey of house price indices prepared by the Global Property Guide. During 2011, house prices fell in 22 countries, of the 35 countries for which Q4 house price statistics are available, and rose in only 13 countries. Similarly, 21 housing markets performed worse during 2011 than last year, while only 14 countries performed better. The figures for the 4th quarter of 2011 are somewhat worrying, with quarterly price rises in only 10 countries, but price falls in 25 countries. On the other hand, the apparent trend towards recovery in the US is positive.
Most countries whose housing markets experienced accelerated downturns in 2011 are located in Europe, including Finland (-2.22% down in 2011), United Kingdom (-3.39%), Sweden (-5.29%), Netherlands (-5.77%), Slovak Republic (-6.88%), Portugal (-7.78%), Spain (-9.27%), Athens, Greece (-10.43%), and Warsaw, Poland (-10.55%). Unhappy Ireland still holds the title of ‘world’s weakest housing market’, with house prices plummeting by 18.08% in 2011. With low transactions, constrained mortgage lending, and an uncertain economic environment, Irish house prices are likely to continue falling in 2012. European countries which saw smaller house price falls this year than the previous year include Turkey (-1.73%), Croatia (-3.26%), Lithuania (-4.21%) and Bulgaria (-8.99%). However, several European countries actually enjoyed house price rises in 2011. The highest house price climb in Europe was in Tallinn, Estonia, whose property market has been recovering since the second half of 2010. Over the past twelve months, house prices in Tallinn rose 8.36%. Other strong European housing markets in 2011 included Norway (+7.01%) and Switzerland (+4.90%). Housing markets in the Ukraine and Iceland finally bounced back in the final quarter of 2011. In Kiev, apartment prices climbed by 5.29% (in nominal terms) from a year earlier, after falling 9.47% the previous year. Likewise, house prices in Iceland rose 1.84% year-on-year, after falling 4.18% the previous year. In Germany and Latvia (Riga), housing markets had modest increases in 2011, with 1.53% and 0.53% rises, respectively. Source: http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/press-relations/Global-housing-market-downturn-gathering-pace Descarca ()Housing Review Europe 2012 published
The RICS European Housing Review 2012 looks at the performance of European housing markets in 2011, analysing trends across the continent. What were the key messages?
- House price change was relatively moderate in general across Europe in 2011
- France, Iceland, Norway and Switzerland all experienced price rises of more than 5%
- Ireland and Spain saw the greatest house price falls
- In the UK, real house prices have fallen by a third since 2007, whereas France and Germany had far more modest declines of a 10th or less
- Housebuilding has fallen sharply across most of Europe since the onset of the financial crisis, the only exception being Switzerland. Only modest falls have been experienced in Germany and France
- A good supply of mortgage credit is essential to sustained housing market recovery in Europe. However, mortgage availability was being cut back in most European countries towards the end of 2011. The Eurozone crisis and new banking regulatory requirements were compounding lender caution in face of weakening housing markets
Real Estate Prices in Iceland are going up
The most northern European country of Iceland has been going through tough times. The economy collapsed in 2008. But the real estate market made a remarkable turnaround. the prices for real estate in Iceland went up by 10 %, reported the newspaper: "The Reykjavik Gravepine". See the report under the following link: http://www.grapevine.is/Home/ReadArticle/Real-Estate-Prices-Increase-In-Iceland Picture: Iceland Brochures, www.visiticeland.com
Descarca ()European Real Estate Market: Istanbul, Munich, Warsaw, Berlin and Stockholm most attractive Markets in 2012
An economic crisis has left the European real estate industry in limbo, with preferred markets chosen more on their potential as safe havens than high-growth hubs, and with highly specialised non-core investments gaining attention as alternatives to traditional property types, according to Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2012, the annual industry forecast published by PwC and the Urban Land Institute (ULI).Solar energy parks and wind farms, identified by interviewees as a growth business;
The report says that the prospects for any turnaround this year hinge on how recent regulatory measures will affect banks' willingness to make commercial loans, and whether another financial industry collapse caused by sovereign debt issues ultimately triggers a widespread release of assets by banks to investors.
2012 marks the beginning of an era that will be defined by more negatives than positives in its early years, says Emerging Trends, which includes interviews with and surveys of more than 600 leading commercial property professionals across Europe. It predicts that this year, property financing will become a major casualty of the measures banks take to tackle regulatory and macro-economic pressures; deleveraging will not free up capital for fresh property lending; debt will become more short-term and expensive; and the need to find alternative sources of funding will become imperative.
Joe Montgomery, chief executive of ULI Europe, said:
"The profound instability is affecting the providers of equity and debt. We are operating in an environment that is very difficult to model. The uncertainty over the level of banks' exposure to sovereign debt default, coupled with uncertainty over the regulatory changes introduced as a result, has caused significant elements of the capital markets to be reduced to a state of near paralysis."
John Forbes, real estate partner at PwC and author of the report, said:
"Debt will be the main story of 2012. There is general pessimism regarding the availability of debt this year, and significantly lenders are the gloomiest of all. "A mere 6% of lenders believe that debt will be as available as it was in 2011, with 42% believing that it will be moderately less available and 52% believing that it will be substantially less. This will be a huge challenge for many, but will create opportunities for others, in particular equity investors less reliant on debt, those who are able to take advantage of the opportunities from bank deleveraging and new debt providers entering the market.
"The good news is that the view of respondents regarding the availability of equity is much more positive. Most promising is the response from institutional investors: 65% believe that equity will be moderately more available, with a further 10% believing that equity would be substantially more available."
Emerging Trends says that 2012 is about finding new opportunities in both longer-term and short-term non-core investments.
Recommendations for longer-term non-core investments include:
- Solar energy parks and wind farms, identified by interviewees as a growth business;
- Gas storage facilities; and
- Healthcare, hospital and data centres, which offer appeal as a stable income stream.
Recommendations for short-term, non-core investment strategies include:
- Buildings in need of refurbishment on the edges of prime districts in major cities;
City Markets
Values posted for European cities "could hardly be described as electric," it notes, with over half the cities recording a lower investment score than last year, including major markets such as London, Frankfurt, Copenhagen, Madrid and Rome. The top-ranked cities in the survey tend to be either in western or northern Europe, or growing regions to the east. The top five markets are:
Istanbul – For the second consecutive year, Istanbul is ranked first for both investment and development. Its popularity is due largely to its strong economic growth prospects and demographics (a young, growing population). Retail development in Turkey has particularly high potential, with consumer spending on the rise and an influx of major international companies. "Turkey's appeal is based on a long-term view of the future," says Emerging Trends.
Munich – Munich ranked second in the survey. With one of the lowest unemployment rates in Germany, Munich's economy is perceived to have fared well in the recent economic malaise. Its appeal is based on the notion of the city as a safe haven offering a deep and liquid market that is more stable than Frankfurt.
Warsaw – Ranked third in the survey, Warsaw is viewed more favourably by outside investors than domestic ones. Investors anticipate the city's increasing prominence as the financial centre for the Eastern European region, boosting the city's office sector. Its retail sector is also highly favoured, as the city has attracted international retailers. Extremely low retail vacancy rates and limited supply will keep this sector strong.
Berlin - Berlin, ranked fourth, was Europe's most attractive market for residential investment. Its appeal, like that of Munich, is stability, and its popularity with interviewees reflects a wider search for safety in today's market environment.
Stockholm – Stockholm, ranked fifth, was another favourite for investors picking safe cities. The city and Sweden overall have impressed investors with a strong performance throughout the financial downturn. It is considered one of the strongest markets in Europe, due to strong public sector finances and a solid export-driven economy.
In addition to Istanbul holding firm as the top investment and development market, the report highlights other trends:
The rise of Moscow as an investment magnet. Of the Russian-based interviewees, 82 per cent anticipate deployment of more capital into real estate this year, and 75 per cent expect profits to rise.
The decline of London in the ratings for new investment, existing investment and development. Respondents cited concerns over the difficulty of obtaining assets, strong competition and pricing on the brink of a bubble.
The likelihood that investment will increase in few of the 27 markets in the survey. Respondents predicted greater investment in a quarter of the cities – Berlin, Hamburg, Istanbul, London, Moscow, Munich and Stockholm – but said capital values and rents would likely hold steady rather than rise as a result of the investment activity.
Respondents from Ireland ("Irish interviewees believe their economy is through the worst") and Turkey were the most optimistic about business confidence and profitability over the coming months. Least optimistic were respondents from the Czech Republic, France and Portugal.
Notes for editors The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide leadership in the responsible use of land and in creating and sustaining thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has nearly 30,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development disciplines.
About the Urban Land Institute
About PwC PwC firms provide industry-focused assurance, tax and advisory services to enhance value for their clients. More than 163,000 people in 151 countries in firms across the PwC network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop fresh perspectives and practical advice. See pwc.com for more information.
Please use the follwing link for downloading the report: http://press.pwc.com/GLOBAL/News-releases/europes-economic-crisis-has-left-real-estate-investment-and-development-on-limbo--little-relief-/s/c7d2c126-c9d3-4ab9-8db0-17a402e33a5b
Source: www.pwc.com
Descarca ()Publication “Basic figures on the EU” Spring 2012
The latest statistical data on the EU have been published by Eurostat. Eurostat publishes official, harmonised statistics on the European Union (EU) and the euro area which offer an objective portrayal of social and economic trends. These statistics are available for EU Member States, and are sometimes broken down by region. Furthermore, some of the indicators are published for candidate countries and other non-member countries. Eurostat collects data from national statistical institutes; the statistics are harmonised according to Europe-wide methodologies. Data are, therefore, genuinely comparable across the whole of the EU. Website Eurostat’s website: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat provides free access to EU statistics, and is also available in German and French. See the publication at the following link: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-GL-12-001/EN/KS-GL-12-001-EN.PDF
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